See copyright notice at the bottom of this page.
List of All Posters
OPS: Begone!
May 20, 2003 - Darren
As stated in Moneyball, it was "an additional point of OBP is worth 3 additional points of SLG."
I'm guess that this means from a baseline of about .300. That makes the following about equal:
.350 OBP == .450 SLG .400 OBP == .600 SLG .450 OBP == .750 SLG
Just a guess.
UZR, 2000-2003 (December 21, 2003)
Discussion ThreadPosted 2:00 p.m.,
December 21, 2003
(#2) -
Darren
When I saw the Dec 21 date on Primate studies, I was hoping it would be UZR. Yahoo!
Century-old math problem may have been solved (January 8, 2004)
Posted 3:57 p.m.,
January 8, 2004
(#1) -
Darren
Yes, but can he solve DIPS.
ARod and Soriano - Was the Trade Fair? (February 16, 2004)
Posted 12:38 a.m.,
February 17, 2004
(#8) -
Darren
Can you do the same thing for getting Manny for 5 years?
ARod and Soriano - Was the Trade Fair? (February 16, 2004)
Posted 5:04 p.m.,
February 17, 2004
(#22) -
Darren
I'm way out of my element over here, so bear with me.
So, paying 159 for something worth 106, or paying 78 for something worth 32? That's a 7 million$ of savings.
Yes, but there's a lot of value in being quite sure what you're getting back. With ARod, you're getting a consistent performer, with Soriano, you've got a big chance that he tanks.
As for Manny, I have seen him at between $85 and $95 mil. Call it $90 with deferrals. I would set his value at a little higher than $60 mil (I think Vlad was a fluke because of his back), but we'll use that number.
So your comparison becomes:
Trade for Manny: pay $90 mil for $60 mil value.
Trade for Soriano: pay $78 mil for $32 mil value.
Keep ARod: pay $159 mil for $106 mil value.
You'll notice that I haven't included any cash givebacks in the Manny deal. That's because, until after the fact, all reports had ARod giving money back to the Rangers to make the deal happen. No one ever denied that. When the players Union stepped in, it would have allowed ARod to give them back $13 mil. At that point, it broke down as follows:
Trade for Manny: pay $77 mil for $60 mil value.
Trade for Soriano: pay $78 mil for $32 mil value.
Keep ARod: pay $159 mil for $106 mil value.
Texas wanted the Red Sox to add in another $12 mil (making it $5 mil towards Manny), making it:
Trade for Manny: pay $65 mil for $60 mil value.
Trade for Soriano: pay $78 mil for $32 mil value.
Keep ARod: pay $159 mil for $106 mil value.
To me, the Rangers had a chance to take the 2nd deal, and according to recent reports, had a chance to take the 3rd deal a few days ago. That they would go for Soriano out of spite or whatever, shows that they deserve what they're getting.
ARod and Soriano - Was the Trade Fair? (February 16, 2004)
Posted 4:56 p.m.,
February 18, 2004
(#34) -
Darren
On this subject, the Rovell article on ESPN estimated that attendance would go up by 3,500/game for the Yankees because of ARod. I tend to think that number's ridiculously high. They were already doing extremely well at the gate and have a ton of very popular players.
MGL's superLWTS (March 10, 2004)
Posted 11:47 p.m.,
March 10, 2004
(#5) -
Darren
MGL, if we need to regress a player's SLWTs to find his real LWTS, why don't you just regress them before you publish them?
Or as Rob Reiner would say, "Why don't just make it a little louder but call the loudest one 10, rather than 11?"
BTW, you guys need to link to this on Clutch Hits. I would have missed it completely if not for a random mention over there. It's great stuff.