HOOPSWORLD.com Review: Pro Basketball Prospectus 2003-04 Edition (November 18, 2003)
An interesting discussion.
--posted by TangoTiger at 09:56 AM EDT
Posted 10:54 a.m.,
November 19, 2003
(#1) -
Chuck Oliveros
I know that attempts have been made to emulate sabermetric analysis in basketball and football, but how valuable are such attempts? Concepts such as RBI are criticized by sabermetricians because they are team dependent. There few individual statistics in football or basketball that are not hugely team dependent. How do you separate out individual contributions?
Posted 11:09 a.m.,
November 19, 2003
(#2) -
tangotiger
It's alot easier in basketball than in football. The plus/minus concept that's used in hockey can easily be used in basketball. The results of that can be adjusted to account for strength of opponent and teammates.
For football, I think the advance would come with a "Win Expectancy" chart based on yard line, yards to go, down, time left in half, whichHalf.
Posted 9:19 p.m.,
November 19, 2003
(#3) -
Michael
I think a lot of that advance in football has already been made. There is a lot of research on this things. Just like we sometimes give a hard time to academics who do a linear regression and publish the new linear run formula as if it were original, without any knowledge of what work the "field" has done. I think we should be careful in our criticsm/suggestions to other sports to not come off sounding that uninformed. That said, baseball has a lot going for it that basketball/football/hockey don't in terms of analysis. That is that from the time the ball is pitched to the time it is put in play it is essentially a 1 vs 1 contest with but 1 final result of the event. In sports where either the events are not as distinct or the events occur in a team vs team setting it is harder to get as good data to study. Similar to how defensive analysis is harder than offensive analysis in baseball just because things are interdependent.
Posted 7:15 a.m.,
November 20, 2003
(#4) -
Sky
For solid football analysis, check out FootballOutsiders.com
Posted 3:09 p.m.,
November 20, 2003
(#5) -
Chuck Oliveros
I took a look at FootballOutsiders.com and their various stats, though interesting, all seem to be team dependent. For example, they have a ranking for running backs but they don't seem to have a methodology for separating out the running backs individual ability from the quality of his offensive line. A superb offensive line can make a mediocre running back look good.
In fact, these stats seem to be oriented toward fantasy football and gambling, which is fine, but what would really interest me are studies of the sort that would be of interest to a GM's, studies that reliably rank players at all positions. It's all well and good to rank offensive and defensive lines, but I would want some metric that measured the value of each and every member of that line. That may not be possible.
Posted 11:58 p.m.,
November 20, 2003
(#6) -
Head Football Outsiders
(homepage)
Chuck,
Hey. I've been doing this for less than a year now. I have a job and a newborn. I haven't developed everything yet! Imagine where Bill James was in 1979. That's where Football Outsiders is now. Give it time.
I think it straight out says on the site somewhere that we can't separate out the running back from the line yet. The most important thing in analysis is to know your own limitations. This is the start of a long process.
Posted 10:57 a.m.,
November 21, 2003
(#7) -
Chuck Oliveros
Head Football Outsiders,
I didn't mean to be critical of your attempts. I merely wanted to point out what I saw as the difficulty of coming up with metrics for football players. I can see how it might be possible to separate out the contribution of a team's offensive line from a running back's own innate abilities, but how would you, for example, even approach coming up with a metric that measures the ability of an individual offensive lineman?
Again, I'm not being critical of your efforts. I just wonder how much useful statistical analysis is possible in football when it comes to rating individual players.
Posted 1:40 p.m.,
November 21, 2003
(#8) -
Tangotiger
I believe it is possible in football to separate out the individual offensive lineman by following a process similar to what I did in evaluating catchers performance separate from pitchers when it comes to the running game and PB/WP.
You might not be able to get in-season performance evaluation, but you should be able to get it for career performance.
Posted 4:44 p.m.,
November 21, 2003
(#9) -
tangotiger
Head Football Outsiders: I sent an email to one of you on the contact page. Can you confirm that someone will be getting back to me?
Posted 12:02 p.m.,
November 22, 2003
(#10) -
Head Football Outsider
(homepage)
Sorry, Tango, busy with the new baby... She's very fussy at night which used to be my email time. I swear I'm gonna get a couple hours to sit down and answer all my email one of these days! Chuck, something like what Tango is talking about might be possible, either that or watching game tape and marking down blocking schemes, if I was ever a full-time football analyst...
Posted 12:03 p.m.,
November 22, 2003
(#11) -
Head Football Outsider
One more thing. Pro Basketball Prospectus is amazing and John Hollinger is awesome and I'm sorry my site sorta hijacked this thread that was supposed to be about him!!!! Everyone should buy his book if they like the NBA.
Posted 10:07 a.m.,
November 25, 2003
(#12) -
mathteamcoach(e-mail)
A question for those who create their own simialrity scores and/or projections:
What program or programming language do you use?
I have lots of ideas about creating projections and similarity scores, not only for baseball, but also for basketball. My problem is that I can't seem to organize all of the data that I have efficiently enough to make using excel easy to generate projections/similarity scores. I have a Master's in mathematics, so the statistics is not my problem -- my problem is getting the computer to cooperate with my ideas in the most efficient way possible.
Can anyone offer some suggestions?
You can email me if it is easier: mathteamcoach@charter.net
Posted 11:17 a.m.,
November 25, 2003
(#13) -
tangotiger
I find any database program or Excel to fit the bill. I've got my own set of sim scores and projection systems, and I use Access and Excel for them. I prefer not to use C/Java simply because the DB program takes care of alot of the mess that I don't have to worry about debugging.
I can't help you with too many details, because I don't want to get into an IP issue. But, if you are a huge baseball fan and you are proficient with math, sim scores are essentially a piece of cake. (I'll eventually release mine.) That said, I find that on the fun-to-useful scale, that they are 95% fun and 5% useful. (Not that there's anything wrong with that.)
Posted 11:46 a.m.,
November 29, 2003
(#14) -
Ed
Does anyone know of factor analytic type studies being done to calculate similiarity scores? It seems like a natural way to approach the problem, but I haven't seen it done before. It would be less ad hoc than some of the competition, esp. with respect to how the various indicators are weighted.