Best time to bring in your best reliever (October 23, 2003)
To start an inning, here are the highest Leveraged Index (LI), in order:
3.2 - bottom of 9th, visiting team up by 1
2.6 - top of 9th, home team up by 1
2.3 - bottom of 8th, visiting team up by 1
2.1 - top of 9th, tied
2.1 - bottom of 9th, tied
2.0 - top of 8th, home team up by 1
However, as soon as you get men on base, there are some situations that just shoot way way up (the LI tops out at around 10, in the bottom of the 9th, visiting team up by 1, men on 2b,3b and 1 out).
So, in the "bottom of 9th, tied" (or "bottom of extra innings, tied"), while this situation is a fireman situation, it is not a "fireman at all costs" situation. And a visiting fireman in a tied game would really need to go 2 innings.
--posted by TangoTiger at 04:24 PM EDT
Posted 8:45 p.m.,
October 26, 2003
(#1) -
PhillyBooster
"However, as soon as you get men on base, there are some situations that just shoot way way up"
One would suspect that the manager's job is to know when to pull the pitcher and bring in the fireman BEFORE the runners get on base and the LI approached double digits.
"Skipper, he's gone 8 innings and looks like he's about had it!"
"Let's leave him in for one or two more batters, though. Runners on second and third will really leverage our closer's inning!"
Posted 10:00 p.m.,
October 26, 2003
(#2) -
tangotiger
I agree... that's the toughest part.... when to warm him up, and not waste the warm ups. If he could stop the game, and let his reliever warm up for 5 minutes, that'd be great.
Since that's not the case, he either has to bring in his reliever a little early, or a little late.
Posted 1:29 a.m.,
October 28, 2003
(#3) -
Doug
Interesting that 9th inning, score tied, is not a situation where most managers bring in their closer (or, at least, that's my gut feel from observation - don't know if it's really true). But, the L.I. says they should.
If you're the home team and it's tied entering the 9th, why not bring in your closer? It's not like there's going to be a save situation later to bring him in for.
If you're the visiting team, it's a little murkier. If you wait, there might be a save situation later - or there might not, and you end up losing the game. So, which line of thinking holds water? I have no idea what the stats are but my gut tells me in a majority of games tied going into the ninth, somebody scores in the ninth or the tenth. There just aren't that many extras going to the 11th and beyond. So I have to agree with the L.I. - bring in the closer, it's unlikely he's going to have to pitch much more than he would normally, anyway.
So, why don't managers think like this? I'm wondering whether in this age of super-specialization, closers (Mariano Rivera excepted) need the psychological security net of having a lead for them to pitch well? Hope that's not what the managers are thinking.
Posted 6:49 a.m.,
October 28, 2003
(#4) -
Tangotiger
The really high leverage situations are when you've got men on base already. Managers really should be bringing them in with men on base in the 8th. Playoff managers know this, as well as 70s/80s managers. After McKeon and Alou, maybe Whitey and Davey Johnson need to be brought back in?