Gleeman - Game 4 (October 23, 2003)
As the Official Blog of Tangotiger, I recommend you linking over to Aaron's site. Always a good read. Aaron makes a couple of points that I'd like to add more to:
Weaver is now alone warming in New York's bullpen again. Joe Buck says, "if the Yankees take the lead, Rivera will pop up." How exactly is a lead in extra-innings more important than a tie-game? I swear, I will never understand this "closer" thing.
This is easily explained by pulling out Leveraged Index (LI) for these situations. With the Yanks on the road, if they don't take the lead in the 9th or later innings, the score is tied. How bad would it be to bring in Mo in this case knowing that by the time the Yanks take the lead (11th? 12th? 14th?) he might not be around?
Well, the LI for a reliever coming into a tie game in the home 9th or home later innings is 2.1. That is, the impact of what happens in these innings is twice of what happens in a random inning. Bruce Sutter's career LI is 1.90, so this is definitely a fireman situation.
The LI for a reliever coming into a game ahead by 1 in the home 9th or later innings is 3.2. This is an even more definite fireman situation. If the Yanks take a 2 run lead, the LI goes down to 1.6, and on a 3-run lead, it's a 0.8.
So, in this case, I think it's really a question of style of usage. Bringing in Mo in the tied situation (assuming that he was able to go) would not have been a bad idea, though I wouldn't say it would be a great idea either. Contreras is an excellent pitcher, and has certainly impressed in this post-season. Knowing that Mo pitched the prior game, and that you still have a few games to go, I certainly don't have a problem with Torre going with Contreras.
As for Weaver.... well.... again, tough call. You've got to manage resources.
But, going back to Buck's point, if you've got a 1 run lead, you must bring in Mo.
By the way, in a tie game in the home 9th or home later innings, the LI goes above 2.75 in the following situations: ALL situations, except no men on or, man on 1b and 2 outs. So, the second that Weaver or any pitcher puts a man on base (except 1b with 2 outs), you have to bring in Mo in that case.
Okay, I just flipped over to Karen Sisco on ABC again and I am now in love with...hold on, lemme look up her name...Carla Gugino. I would like to take this opportunity to officially propose marriage to Ms. Gugino. I do so here because I am sure she will see this, what with her being such a big fan of Aaron's Baseball Blog and all. Drop me an email Carla and we'll work out the details.
I too became enamoured with Gugino, but that was way back in 1996, when she starred opposite Michael J Fox in the first year of Spin City. She had that "girl next door" look as a reporter, but sexy as heck when alone with Fox.
To Aaron specifically, you may find this information very very useful.
--posted by TangoTiger at 10:29 AM EDT
Posted 11:01 a.m.,
October 23, 2003
(#1) -
Anonymous
Posted 1:21 p.m.,
October 23, 2003
(#2) -
bob mong
Hardcore sabermetrics...
Tango's tryin' to make this blog live up to its name, I guess. :)