postseason odds - Silver (October 11, 2003)
Back when the A's were leading 2-0, their chances were about the same as the Yanks at 25%. As the great Jimmy The Greek said on the Simpsons "When you're right 52% of the time, you're wrong 48% of the time".
I think what these odds report from Nate and Dackle have shown is that there are huge swings game-to-game as the regular season closes, and the playoffs get down to the wire. According to these odds, the AL has a 70-30 chance of winning the World Series.
I think it would be kinda cool to see these reports in graph-form day-to-day, so you can see the wild swings.
--posted by TangoTiger at 09:15 AM EDT
Posted 9:38 a.m.,
October 11, 2003
(#1) -
studes
(homepage)
I think it would be kinda cool to see these reports in graph-form day-to-day, so you can see the wild swings.
Now you're talking! :)
Posted 2:59 p.m.,
October 14, 2003
(#2) -
Alan Shank
I have been posting my odds each day in "Al's Baseball Tidbits," available on this site. They do swing back and forth quite drastically, when something like .600 and .400 for a game turn into 0.0 and 1.0. My odds, of course, have nothing to do with who's betting on whom; they are attempts to estimate the true probabilities of each team winning each game and series.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
Posted 4:06 p.m.,
October 14, 2003
(#3) -
tangotiger
Alan, I didn't notice that. Thanks for pointing it out.
If you've been keeping track on a day-to-day basis, can you compile your results in an Excel file so that we can see the progress of each team?