2003 Win Shares, updated (June 24, 2003)
Have fun...
--posted by TangoTiger at 06:26 PM EDT
Posted 10:40 a.m.,
June 25, 2003
(#1) -
Mike Lieberthal
I've been squatting back here for about 3 months now. I have 18 assists and have caught 6 baserunners. How could I have zero defensive win shares?
Posted 10:51 a.m.,
June 25, 2003
(#2) -
Dave Studenmund
(homepage)
Good question. In fact, both Philly catchers have 0 win shares. The Phillies are getting no fielding contribution from their catchers, according to James.
The underlying reason is that Phillies' catchers have allowed 60 SB with only 8 CS, and have made 5 errors with only 22 assists.
Posted 11:05 a.m.,
June 25, 2003
(#3) -
Eric Gagne
I have 12 Win Shares (4 wins) and have thrown 39.3 inning, the equivalent of 4.37 complete games!
The rest of y'all can just go home. I don't need any of you! Hitters? Feh. I can just stand out here on the mound and win my games all by myself! My ERA is 2.05. I am also almost a full win better than Hideo Nomo, who has pitched almost 3 times as many innings with a 2.55 ERA.
Behold and bow down before the amazing powers of the 1-inning closer!
Posted 12:04 p.m.,
June 25, 2003
(#4) -
Dave Studenmund
(homepage)
Yes, that's one of my bigger beefs with Win Shares. It uses Saves to try and get at the "Leverage Index" Tango has put together. Obviously, the Leverage Index is much better than just total saves, but it requires pbp data. James probably overweighted the points given to saves, because he had nothing else.
The Nomo/Gagne ratio might no be that far off, however. I believe that the best leverage index Tango came up with recently over a four-year period was for Troy Percival's, at just under 2. If Gagne has pitched in a lot of one-run ballgames so far this year, or come in the middle of innings a lot, then 3 is possible. Especially if you add in the lower ERA (or component ERA, in this case).
Posted 12:31 p.m.,
June 25, 2003
(#5) -
tangotiger
The highest single-season LI that I have found was 2.3. No way is any pitcher getting an average of 3.
10-15% of all batters for a team occur with an LI over 2.5. That translates to about 60 innings. I think the single-season record for a single pitcher is probably the equivalent of about 40 innings. The current relievers have the equivalent of 25 innings of LI over 2.5.
So, if you've only got 25 innings with an LI over 2.5 for the season, you've got 50-60 innings with an LI under 2.5.
Posted 2:43 p.m.,
June 25, 2003
(#6) -
Dave Studenmund
(homepage)
Thanks, Tango. So to restate the "could be" argument, Gagne's leveraged index could double his contribution to the Dodgers. I checked, and half of his appearances have been with a one-run swing on the line. Seems to me an LI of 2.0 is conceivable.
Plus, his component ERA is substantially better than Nomo's. Gagne's FIP is -2.50, while Nomo's is 0.96. Add that to the LI, and an overall WS/IP ratio of 3.0 is conceivable.
I'm not saying it's "right." I'm just saying that this one instance of weird-looking win shares distribution may, in fact, reflect reality.
Posted 3:54 p.m.,
June 25, 2003
(#7) -
tangotiger
Oh, I wasn't trying to say whether WS was valuing Gagne correctly or not. Gagne's LI last year was 1.8, so if he has a 2 this year, I can accept that.
In the case of Gagne and Nomo, if you have something like
Gagne: 40 IP, 1.50 "component" ERA
Nomo: 120 IP, 2.50 "component" ERA
our LI comes in and treatss Gagne's 40 IP as 80.
The question then is if you want a 1.50 ERA in 80 IP, or a 2.5 ERA in 120 IP. Compared to say an average of 4.00, that makes Gagne worth +22 runs and Nomo is +20 runs. Compared to a replacement of 5.00, then Gagne is worth +31 runs, and Nomo is +33.
I see no issue where you have a reliever having 1/3 the innings, but if he is more effective, then he could be worth the same.
Posted 6:09 p.m.,
June 25, 2003
(#8) -
Pete(e-mail)
One reason Nomo and Gagne are so close is because Win Shares deducts claim points from pitchers who don't create enough runs offensively. Nomo, 3 for 31 with 2 walks, loses 3.5 claim points from hitting. Gagne, without an AB, loses none.
The Phillies' catchers have a claim percentage of .126 (before the .2 is subtracted), with 0 points on the 50 point scale (11.5% CS opposed to the NL average of 31.7%) and just 5 points on the 30 point scale (E% of .128 opposed to the NL average of .076). This leads to the Phillies' catchers getting 0 fielding WS. James mentions on pp. 68-69 of Win Shares that this has happened before to a position on five other teams , including the catchers on the 1987 Texas Rangers.